The euro to USD (EURUSD) price is down slightly as investors wait for inflation data from the US and key corporate earnings. The pair is trading at 1.1800, which is a few pips above yesterday’s low of 1.1790.
There are three main catalysts for the EURUSD pair today. First, the market will continue to focus on the United States, where the debate on additional stimulus is going on. The White House has already put forward a $1.8 trillion proposal that has been rejected by Speaker Pelosi and Republicans.
Second, the earning season will kick-off today. Among the big financial institutions that will release their earnings today are JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. These results will provide early indications of the state of the economy. Weak results will possibly pull the euro to USD price lower as investors start pricing-in a difficult earning season.
Third, the euro to USD will also react to key inflation data from the United States and Europe. In the morning session, we will receive consumer price index (CPI) data from Germany and Sweden. Later today, we will get the data from the United States. Analysts expect that the headline CPI data from the US rose to 1.4% in September while the core CPI rose to 1.8%.
The pair will also react mildly to a series of speeches by German central bank vice-chair today.
EURUSD technical outlook
The hourly chart shows that the euro to USD price is trading slightly above the yesterday’s low of 1.1790. The price is slightly below the 25-day exponential moving average. It is also slightly above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest levels this month. The price is also slightly above the standard pivot point that is shown in black, which is also the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
Therefore, I suspect that pair will remain in the current range today. However, in the near term, I see it dropping to the first support at 1.1745. On the flip side, a move above the 1.1808 will invalidate this trend.