- ADA price decline is partly attributed to the slow development and growth of the Cardano ecosystem relative to competitors like Solana.
- Bitcoin's extended drop has further exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the broader market, adding pressure to altcoins.
- On-chain data signals that selling pressure could be coming to an end, which raises hope of a rebound.
Since early October 2025, ADA has plummeted over 30%, recently brushing against year-to-date lows near $0.46, as reported by CoinMarketCap data. This isn’t just a small dip; it’s a mix of problems specific to ADA along with Bitcoin’s overall decline. Cardano price has dropped by 36% in the last month and is down by 51% YTD. So what’s happening and is this a short term thing or a start of bigger issues?
Cardano’s Weaknesses Haunt ADA
Several Cardano-specific factors have contributed to its relative underperformance. One key issue has been the ongoing perception that Cardano’s development, while rigorously peer-reviewed, is slower than that of its Layer-1 competitors like Solana.
This narrative of a slower pace, which some critics pejoratively term a “ghost chain,” often leads to capital rotation away from ADA
Bitcoin’s Downtrend Dragging ADA Deeper
ADA maintains an 0.85 correlation with Bitcoin. As BTC price fell below $100,000, altcoins were struck severely by cascading liquidations. The CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index shows that there is a lot of fear in the market right now, which makes people sell. This general sentiment is a strong headwind, but ADA’s drop has been worse than the average for altcoins, which shows that the problems with the coin are making the overall stress worse.
On-Chain Data Signal Potential Reversal
Despite the big fall, Cardano’s on-chain data shows signs of a possible bottom. Santiment says the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is down to −19.7%. The analytics platform classifies this as an “Extreme Buy Zone” because it implies that recent buyers are sitting on average unrealized losses of nearly 20%. Such conditions have historically preceded sharp rebounds.
TapTools data shows whale investors have quietly bought 348 million more ADA this past month, while smaller investors were selling. Also, the number of ADA-holding addresses has reached a new high of 3.175 million. These things suggest that the selling might be ending, with most of the weaker investors having already sold.
Time to Buy the Dip or Dump?
Deciding to buy or sell ADA really hinges on how long you plan to invest and how much risk you can stomach. The convergence of a deeply oversold technical setup and the MVRV ratio signaling extreme undervaluation presents a strong case for long-term accumulation.
But, another short-term decline is likely, perhaps testing the $0.30 level, due to ongoing whale selling, governance concerns, and the dominant bearish technical pattern. For short-term traders, the technical indicators call for caution until ADA gets back above key resistance levels.
ADA Price Prediction
Cardano’s daily chart paints a bearish picture, with ADA trading below key moving averages that reinforce the downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 24, signaling oversold conditions. The price dipped has support at the $0.40 psychological level and is testing the lower Bollinger Band. It will likely face resistance around $0.50 – $0.55, near the 23.6% Fib level ($0.50). Key support is likely to be around $0.35 and then $0.30. To turn things around, the price needs to get back above $0.57 (38.2% Fib) to build positive momentum.
ADA price daily chart as of November 21, 2025 with support and resistance levels. Created on TradingView
Many investors are keeping off ADA or selling it out of concerns regarding perceived slow ecosystem development. With better opportunities elsewhere like on Solana, it has become difficult for Cardano to compete.
ADA has a strong 0.85 correlation with Bitcoin in the last 30 days as of this writing. Therefore, when Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, ADA fell too. Also, high fear in the market and tariff issues have caused people to sell off altcoins, including ADA.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio shows ADA is in an Extreme Buy Zone. This means it might be worth more than its trading for, and most holders are losing money. Historically, this situation has meant a recovery is coming.
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