- Explore the technical analysis of silver rate today and discover key levels, and how China's export curbs may impact silver prices.
The silver rate today advances 2.75% or 1.688 points. This boost is driven by the high demand for physical silver. During September -October, India imported over 2,600 tonnes of the precious metal.
The silver market has been stressed and could face further pressure at the beginning of the year. China has announced curbs on the export of precious metals. These measures will take effect at the start of 2026.
This article explores the silver rate today, technical analysis for XAG/USD, and the potential levels for silver. It highlights the main reasons of silver surge, and how China’s export curbs could affect silver prices.
Silver Rate Today | Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, silver prices are trading within a well-defined ascending channel. It reflects a sustained bullish trend. As long as price action remains inside this channel, the upside bias stays intact. If the price breaks out above the upper boundary of the channel, it will push prices toward a new all-time high at 68.00 and then 70.00.
On the downside, a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would weaken the bullish momentum. It likely opens the door for a pullmarket toward the key support level of 56.45. At this key support level, buyers may attempt to re-enter the market.
Looking at the Bollinger bands, the price is trading near the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, it also signals a potential correction if the price fails to break out of this upper band. The Bollinger band indicates that a period of consolidation or a correction below the middle band would occur.
Moreover, the RSI is sitting above the neutral 50 level. It confirms bullish momentum, suggesting there is still room for further upside.RSI is not yet in extreme overbought territory. That means any RSI divergence or move back toward 50 could support a short-term correction.
Key Reasons Behind the Silver Surge:
The silver rally has been driven by a shortage in the physical supply, strong demand from the green energy sector, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The imported silver from Hong Kong is originally leased by China to the London Bullion Market and then shipped to India. This means a physical shortage in silver supply amid high demand, rather than normal trade flows. Using unusual trade routes means tight supply, strong demand, and upward pressure on silver prices.
With this case, the silver price performance is reflected. After the silver price rose above $64 per ounce, it eased and closed around $62 over the weekend. Silver futures for March also settled near $62. In India, March silver futures on the MCX ended at 1,92,615 rupees per kilogram.
Silver prices have surged nearly 115% so far this year, compared with 64% rise in gold. Silver outperformed gold, and the gold-silver ratio indicates that silver prices are undervalued compared with gold.
What is China’s Export Curbs Policy, and How Does it Affect Silver Prices?
China’s new policy states that only large state-approved companies that produce at least 80 tonnes of silver a year are allowed to receive an export license. This policy aims to protect “national resources” and stop smaller exporters from shipping silver overseas.
China is the world’s second-largest silver producer and supplies around 60-70% of global silver output, according to Silver Academy. The policy is designed to keep more silver for domestic needs, such as the solar panel industry and electronics.
This move may push global silver prices higher and give China greater influence over countries that rely on its silver supply. Moreover, China may use its silver as a geopolitical tool similar to its restrictions on rare earth exports to apply pressure on other nations.
China aims to protect the domestic silver supply for key industries like solar and electronics.
It’s likely lead to a tighter global supply, which can push silver prices higher.
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