- Silver price predictions for the week will continue to be dictated by the macro headlines around the US-Iran war.
Live Chart and Current setup
Silver price predictions continue to depend on the macro headlines from the US-Iran war and events that are a direct fallout of this conflict, namely producer inflationary fears and a different interest rate narrative from that of Q4 2025.
The silver price is currently trading 2.9% lower after talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan aimed at ending the conflict collapsed. With no agreements, Iran has once more closed the shipping corridor along the Strait of Hormuz, heightening risk aversion and a flight to safety this Monday. As such, the US Dollar is trading higher, as US yields have also risen along with the overnight jump in crude oil prices. Adding to the shock is the announcement by US President Trump that the US Navy would mount a blockade of all shipping around the Strait of Hormuz.
The attendant market shock from these weekend events has reinforced the higher-for-longer US interest rate repricing amid emerging inflationary risk. The situation is a headwind for silver and other non-yielding metals such as gold.
Silver Price: Macro Drivers
1) Oil shock → inflation fear → hawkish rate repricing
With Brent crude climbing above the $100/barrel mark, inflation expectations are back on the table. Higher energy prices raise inflation expectations, which cause markets to reprice the chances of further Fed easing much lower. Indeed, there is even talk of a potential Fed rate hike at the end of the year. Such expectations shift funds from non-yielding assets to bond assets.
2) USD and US bond yields
Whenever US bond yields rise, the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver declines, while the appetite for interest-yielding assets such as bonds increases.
3) Silver’s “high beta” Price Performance
As a high-beta asset, silver prices tend to overshoot and overreact to macro shocks. This is because silver is not only a precious metal, but also a safe-haven asset. Silver has greater positioning sensitivity than gold, which is why there has been significant two-way volatility in the white metal.
Catalysts for Silver Price This Week
1.Hormuz blockade headlines: Will the shipping blockage escalate further and tighten supply, or will the impact wear off, especially as countries like Saudi Arabia begin using alternative routes? If the blockade leads to further oil supply tightening and prices >$100/barrel, this is bearish for silver due to the inflationary expectations such a situation creates.
2.Rates repricing: The energy shock is driving inflation expectations, which could lead central banks to tighten monetary conditions. As long as markets continue to reprice rates hawkishly, silver will struggle to sustain any rallies.
3.Risk sentiment: Silver is sensitive to risk sentiment. It tends to lose traction in broad risk-off market conditions (USD on bid, equities on offer). Silver is regarded as the barometer of high-beta metals, which display a marked response to risk sentiment.
Silver Price: Weekly Forecast Scenarios
Base case: Silver is expected to remain in a choppy consolidation, with sellers fading any rallies as long as oil prices and the US dollar remain bid. Silver prices will remain volatile and trade defensively, even as they remain sensitive to US bond yields and the USD.
Bull case: a silver price rebound will be triggered by a cooling in oil prices and US bond yields. This combination will diminish inflation expectations and bring Fed easing back to the table. Given its high reactivity to these conditions, a snap higher in XAG/USD in response to higher silver prices is not out of place.
Bear case: if oil prices remain elevated and US bond yields rise further, the US Dollar will gain at silver’s expense. Reuters reports indicate that this is the cleanest bearish market picture for silver prices at the moment.
Silver Price Prediction for the Week: Technical Outlook
Silver’s daily chart shows an evolving rising wedge pattern, with this morning’s gap down rebounding off the lower border. I expect silver to keep trading in a two-way range until the price tests the 79.30 barrier.
If the bears reject the price action there, expect a decline that tests the 71.01 support. If this support gives way, an additional target at 64.42 (6 February low) will become available.
However, a bullish break of 79.30 makes a case for the advance towards 87.22, where the most recent swing high resides. Above this point, an additional target resides at 95.59.