- Copper has risen to a historic $13,000 per metric ton and there's strong demand amidst a shutdown at the world's second largest copper mine
- Rising demand from AI data center infrastructure and green energy transition are key growth drivers
- There's an underlying risk of oversupply down the year which could bring prices down to just above $9,000 per metric ton
Gold and silver have been stealing the show in the last year, but copper has been stealthily making big moves. Since August 2025, copper prices have steadily risen, recently breaking records by hitting over $13,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME). This jump is primarily fueled by a a spike in the demand for more electricity and AI tech, but many are wondering if it will last.
Why Are Copper Prices Surging?
The current surge is not just a speculative spike, but it is driven by a genuine physical shortage. A major catalyst was the massive supply disruption at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper producer. A major mudslide hit the mine late last year, and J.P. Morgan Global Research says it’ll probably be shut down until at least the second part of 2026. That’s a huge chunk of supply gone just when demand is picking up!
Meanwhile, strong demand for things used in AI and electric vehicles means copper is needed for a greener future. For businesses, higher copper costs could mean higher prices for wiring and electronics, which might slow down some projects.
Copper Price 2026 Outlook and Sustainability
Ventura Securities anticipates sharp surges in copper prices in 2026, fueled by EV and grid expansions. Capital Economics, however, sees record highs falling back, attributing 2025’s 32% gain to temporary factors. Overall, market conditions remain tight, with supply disruptions clashing against booming demand.
UBS and BMI (Fitch Solutions) are positive, expecting a global shortage of about 330,000 to 600,000 metric tons this year. A consensus among 30 analysts polled by Reuters, notes prices might not stay at $13,000 forever, there will be a new floor is forming above the past average of $9,000.
Barrons notes global prices hitting $13,387.50 per ton, driven by these factors plus proposed U.S. tariffs on copper imports. This implies an accelerating race for secure supplies. However, Goldman Sachs has put a word of caution, suggesting that if there’s a steady surplus of refined supply, prices might actually drop back to the $10,000–$11,000 range by the middle of the year.
Will this growth last through 2026? The dominant consensus is that it will stay up in the near-term because of strong demand, but there are some concerns. The year is just getting started, and the future is uncertain, with prices changing based on Chinese demand, supply issues, and economic policies. One key risk is that new mines could start producing too much too fast, which could flood the market.
Copper Price Forecast
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently screaming at 82, suggesting the metal is severely overbought in the short term and due for a period of consolidation. Prices might facing psychological resistance going above $13,500/t, with a possible target at $14,000/t. On the downside, copper prices should find support at the previous high of $11,183/t, followed by a stronger support at $10,500/t.
A combination of factors came together. They include major mining problems in Indonesia following a landslide, strong demand from new AI data centers, and a projected global shortage of refined copper reaching 330,000 tons this year.
AI needs massive data centers, and these use way more power than older facilities. That means we need better power grids and special cooling, and both need tons of copper.
Key risks include supply overproduction, Chinese demand shifts, geopolitical tensions like tariffs, and high prices dampening consumption.