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SPCE Stock Forecast: Intraday Bounce Makes for a Limited Uptick

The 6.50% advance in the stock of Virgin Galactic appears to have boosted SPCE stock forecasts, coming off the 6.68 price mark, which had earlier served as a resilient resistance. This bounce invalidates the pullback move’s attempted return and opens the door for the bulls to aim for higher targets without any obstacles. 

SPCE is coming off a decline toward record lows, triggered when the company declared it was delaying the launch of its commercial space flight service to Q1 2023. Supply chain and labour constraints were cited as the reasons. This announcement also came as the company saw a narrowing of its net losses, posting a 93.1m loss in Q1 2022 against a net loss of $129.7m a year earlier. 

Since then, the company has raised additional capital via a convertible note, and its valuation has been degraded to $1.6billion. Revenue estimates based on the number of deposits and ticket sales at the cost of $300K – $450K make for a revenue cap of just under $40m in 2023 and $194m in 2024.

Analysts believe that the calculations are too optimistic, as the company would have to do three space flights a month to match these estimates. Twelve Wall Street analysts have made a 12-month median SPCE stock forecast of $9.00. This gives the SPCE stock price a minimal upside potential of just 24.13%.

SPCE Stock Forecast

The break of the 6.68 resistance (rectangle’s lower border) by the 27 May candle, followed by the attempted return move that retested this resistance-turned-support, has resulted in a bounce which has clear skies to test 7.85 (22 February low and 2 May high). Above this level, additional barriers to the advance are seen at 9.22 and 11.34 (29 March high and rectangle’s upper boundary). 

On the other hand, a decline below the 6.68 support targets 5.14, the all-time low price mark. Below this level, potential candidates to serve as support in record low territory include the 3.71 and 2.93 price marks, sites of the 100% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension levels. 

SPCE: Daily Chart