Gold Price: Live Chart and Current Situation
Gold prices have rebounded very sharply this Wednesday. As of writing, gold prices that had touched lows of $4,098 in Tuesday’s trading session are now up more than $550 and traded as high as $4,558. As reported by Reuters, this is a >2% jump in the price of the yellow asset, following a slump in oil prices and softening of the US Dollar.
What Happened with Gold Prices?
Two distinct phases have defined the week’s price action.
a) Early Week: Gold prices faced a capitulation-style selloff that mostly stemmed from the previous week’s higher-for-longer rate outlook from the Federal Reserve. Deferment of any rate cuts and the raised inflation outlook virtually put paid to any Fed easing expectations, at least in the first half of 2026. The selloff marked the worst stretch of gold price declines since 2013 in terms of scale. As of 19-20 March, higher US bond yields and oil-driven inflation fears kept the market firmly fixated on the “rates up” narrative, making gold unattractive relative to higher-yielding US Treasuries.
b) Mid-week: Wednesday 25 March marks the middle of the week, and the mid-week picture has been of a sharp rebound in gold and a sharp drop in gold prices, due to the tweets of US President Trump that point towards a diplomatic solution to the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. A potential month-long ceasefire is being floated across the newswires, which has put down near-term inflation fears and resurrected Fed easing expectations.
Gold price forecasts will continue to center around the USD and higher yields, and will also act less as a pure safe-haven asset as a result.
Macro Drivers for Gold Price
The current macro drivers for the week include:
1. Oil shock
The oil shock is still on, stoking inflation fears. Already, the rise in oil prices is pushing up consumer goods prices in many countries. As long as the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption risks persist, markets will continue to reprice inflation higher, keeping yields supported and staving off any central bank easing expectations. This will keep gold under pressure in the near-term.
2. Position Unwinding
The unwinding of earlier bullish positions has also fueled the early-week decline in the gold price. This has led to net outflows in gold-based ETFs and a de-risking of bullish positions. These have added to the scale and magnitude of the drop.
3. Diplomacy Headlines
Gold prices caught a bid in Wednesday trading after diplomatic headlines around the ongoing conflict began to emerge. The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, but in an atmosphere of all bad news, even a rumor of something positive is bound to spark heavy price action in the opposite direction. This is what happened this Wednesday, as markets shifted away from the inflation fears.
Gold Price Forecasts for the Week: What to Watch
The following headlines should be watched this week, as they will be the primary drivers of gold prices.
1. Oil pathway: stabilization or a decline in crude oil prices can lead to an extension of the rebound in gold prices. However, a renewed spike in oil prices leaves gold vulnerable to a rally fade and another leg down based on the “oil-shock -> inflation -> higher rates” theory.
2. USD & Treasury Yields: If yields on US bonds keep rising, gold prices will remain under pressure. Oil prices need to stay higher, pushing the inflation narrative, for the Fed to keep delaying any rate cuts.
Gold Price Forecasts: Scenarios
Base case: Gold continues range-trading with high sensitivity to headlines. Gold is expected to hold a defensive floor even as ceasefire negotiations headlines and oil price volatility continue to keep intraday swings elevated. Expect dip buys and fade on rallies if US bond yields stay firm.
Bull case: A steep drop in oil prices will lead to lower US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar. This will support gold prices, allowing a push above the 4600 level and beyond.
Bear case: A renewed oil spike will renew inflation fears and sustain the “higher for longer” central bank rhetoric. If the market assumes this tone, US bond yields will rise, and the US Dollar will strengthen in response. This will allow gold prices to revisit the week’s lows below 4300.
Gold Price Forecasts: Technical Outlook
The pinbar candle of Monday and Tuesday at the 4394 support has been followed by Wednesday’s upside push, which is now challenging he 4535 resistance level and prior high of 29 December 2025. A break of this barrier clears the pathway towards the 4662 resistance in the first instance, with a chance at aiming for 4843 if the new barrier is cleared by the bulls.
On the flip side, failure to clear the 4535 resistance allows the bears to revisit the 4394 support. If this pivot fails to hold, a decline towards the 4294 support cannot be ruled out.
