- Nebius stock has risen by 23% in the last five trading sessions
- The company announced nearly $30 billion worth of deals in just five days, including one bigger than its current market cap
- Execution could be the biggest source of pressure for Nebius in the coming months, with its high valuation relative to sales also a concern
Nebius stock (NASDAQ: NBIS) price surged past $130 for the first time since November 2025 on Monday, driven largely by a $27 billion infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms. The move resulted in a nearly 15% rise by the stock in a single session, bringing its gains in the last five sessions to over 23%. This development positions Nebius as a key player in the evolving neocloud sector focused on generative AI technologies.
However, trading at 57 times sales and with deliveries scheduled only to start in 2027, there is uncertainty about whether the current stock price accurately reflects the value of the deal.
Is the Surge in Nebius Stock Justified or Speculative?
Just five days after a $2 billion Nvidia investment, Nebius announced a five-year contract with Meta that exceeds its market cap of about $25 billion. This deal includes $12 billion in dedicated capacity deployed across several sites using Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, with delivery beginning in early 2027. Additionally, Meta plans to purchase up to $15 billion more in available compute resources from future Nebius clusters over the same period.
Locking in a big-name tenant means Nebius doesn’t have to struggle so hard on its big spending plans. With a large client like Meta committing to lock in Nebius’ capacity years in advance, revenue becomes less guesswork, more certainty. This is something few startups ever get close to touching.
Along with a Microsoft agreement worth as much as $19.4 billion over five years signed in September 2025, Nebius has secured two of the industry’s largest external compute contracts in just six months. These developments have convinced many investors that Nebius stock is likely to stay on the ascending trajectory for the most part of the foreseeable future.
2026 Outlook and Risks
Nebius’s recent operational data supports the optimistic view. By the end of 2025, the company had over 170 megawatts of active power, with all available rack space sold and some potential customers turned away.
Fourth-quarter revenue reached $227.7 million, a 503.6% increase year-over-year. Annual recurring revenue closed the year at $1.25 billion, exceeding guidance estimates of $900 million to $1.1 billion. Management expects annual recurring revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026, with over 3GW of contracted power and between 800MW to 1GW connected.
Despite this growth, the stock’s 57-times sales multiple reflects concerns about profitability. Operating losses widened to $596 million in 2025, a 49% increase from the prior year, even as revenue climbed 479%. This level of cash burn is expected to grow as capital expenditures approach $20 billion in 2026.
Critically, since Meta’s capacity deliveries won’t start until early 2027, the financial benefits from the recent contract will mainly be realized then and later. As a result, current stock gains are driven more by expected future revenue than by near-term earnings improvements. This timing should be carefully considered by investors assessing the stock’s valuation today.
Nebius Stock Forecast
Nebius stock RSI is at 68 and nearing overbought conditions, suggesting a period of consolidation might be near, though momentum remains firmly with the buyers. The pivot is at the upper Bollinger Band level at $120.66. Immediate resistance is at $132.30, with the next barrier likely to be at $135.80. Beyond that level, the 52-week high of $141.10 will serve as a target for the current upward move. Key support levels can be found around $115.35, but if the price closes below $109.14, it could signal that investor enthusiasm outpaces the company’s fundamentals.
Nebius stock daily price chart showing key support and resistance levels on March 17,2026. Created on TradingView
The primary trigger was the announcement of a multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms, valued at up to $27 billion, utilizing NVIDIA’s latest Vera Rubin technology.
The deal has some conditions. The $12 billion dedicated capacity part is in a contract. The extra $15 billion depends on Meta buying unused capacity that Nebius first offers to other customers.
Nebius is targeting an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. This is possible because they have a lot of contracted capacity that hasn’t been used yet.