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US stock futures were mostly steady on Tuesday, December 23, as investors positioned cautiously ahead of key US economic data releases in a holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near flat, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged slightly higher. Markets are coming off a strong, tech-led start to the week, with Wall Street looking to extend gains even as liquidity thins ahead of the Christmas holiday. Dow Jones Futures Hold Steady as Markets Await GDP Report Dow Jones futures traded near 48,650, little changed during the European session, as traders held back ahead of the delayed US third-quarter GDP release. The data is expected to show the economy expanded at an annualised 3.2%, slowing from 3.8% in the second quarter but remaining above the post-2021 average. In addition to GDP, investors are watching updates on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and industrial production, which together represent the final batch of major US economic data before markets close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Christmas Day. The cautious tone reflects reluctance to make large directional bets ahead of macro data that could influence interest-rate expectations into 2026. Wall Street Extends Gains as Tech Stocks Lead In Monday’s regular session, US equities posted a third consecutive day of gains. The Dow Jones rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, and the Nasdaq added 0.5%, leaving the S&P 500 just 0.2% below its all-time closing high. Technology stocks continued to drive performance. Nvidia rose 1.5% on reports tied to its AI chip shipments, while Oracle gained 3.2% and Micron Technology surged 4%. The trio eased slightly in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors locked in some profits. Energy stocks also found support, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron rising more than 1% as oil prices firmed on renewed supply concerns involving Venezuela. Treasury Yields Ease as Rate-Cut Expectations Persist Bond markets signalled a more supportive backdrop for equities. The 10-year US Treasury yield slipped below 4.15%, easing from Monday’s levels and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could continue easing policy in 2026. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said recent data aligns with a soft-landing outlook, adding that delaying policy easing could raise recession risks. His comments have helped underpin sentiment, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and financials. Gold Hits Record High as Investors Hedge Risk While equities consolidated, commodities sent a clear signal of underlying caution. Gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $4,500 per ounce for a second consecutive session, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates. Silver also climbed to record levels above $69, while Bitcoin slipped back toward $87,600, highlighting a divergence between traditional safe havens and risk-sensitive assets. Dow Jones Outlook: Santa Rally Hopes Meet Thin Liquidity With markets entering a shortened holiday week, trading volumes are expected to remain light, potentially amplifying price swings. Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged gains during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, a pattern often referred to as the Santa Claus rally. However, with GDP and labour market data still pending, investors appear content to stay cautious rather than chase prices higher. For the Dow Jones, near-term direction will likely depend on whether economic data reinforces expectations for easing policy or introduces fresh uncertainty. For now, US equities remain supported, but conviction appears measured as the year draws to a close. Why is the Dow Jones falling today? The Dow Jones is slipping as investors turn cautious ahead of key US economic data, thin holiday trading reduces liquidity, and profit-taking emerges after recent gains near record levels. Why are Dow Jones futures flat today? Dow Jones futures are flat as investors wait for US GDP and inflation data, with thin holiday liquidity limiting strong directional moves. How does US GDP data affect the Dow Jones? Stronger GDP can support earnings expectations but may delay interest-rate cuts, while weaker GDP can boost rate-cut hopes but raise growth concerns. Is the Dow Jones near a record high? Yes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading close to its recent highs as major US equity indexes push toward record levels, supported by tech gains and strong market momentum ahead of key economic data.

RIO

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