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Alibaba Stock Forecasts Weak Earnings Expectation Prompts Lower

The Alibaba stock forecast remains inconclusive this Wednesday, despite the lower open on the stock. The Alibaba share price is down 1.32%, following a lower close on the Hang Seng exchange. Alibaba closed 2.65% lower in Hong Kong trading, as several Chinese tech and EV stocks plummeted on the day. 

Alibaba and Tencent are expected to post lacklustre quarterly earnings due primarily to the domestic regulatory crackdown. A survey of analysts by Bloomberg shows pessimistic expectations. Trust analyst Youssef Squali has cut his 12-mont price target on the stock from $180 to $132 due to the company’s challenges across its business segments.

The analyst believes that disappointing earnings will highlight the company’s struggles under the tighter regulatory environment. Next week’s 4th quarter earnings report will guide the Alibaba stock forecast. Likewise, the earnings for Tencent could generally provide some advance guidance on the Chinese tech industry.

Alibaba Stock Forecast

The Alibaba stock forecast will only favour the bulls if the price action clears the 93.50 and 103.67 resistance levels. Clearance of the latter completes the double bottom on the daily chart, which clears the path for a measured move that targets 120.27 (30 March high). On the other hand, if the price action extends beyond the 120.27 price mark, the 129.88 resistance (7 December 2021 and 17 February 2022 highs) emerges as a new target.

On the flip side, rejection at the current resistance of 93.50 (11 March and 20 April highs) prevents the completion of the double bottom. Instead, a pullback following this rejection renders 82.57 vulnerable. This support (14 March low/25 April high) could pave the way for a drive towards 73.22 (15 March low) if it is left unprotected by the bulls. 60.33 is multi-year support which remains out of the reach of the bears.

Alibaba: Daily Chart