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USDTRY Trapped Between 100 and 200-day MA


USDTRY gives up 0.23% today at 5.7219 after three consecutive gains.  Last week OECD revised the forecast for Turkish economy to -0.3% this year. From – 2.9%. On the other hand, it did not change the projection for 2020 and expected the Turkish economy to grow by 1.6%. Turkey’s unemployment rate rose to 13% in June from 10.2%.

CBRT delivered a 325 bp interest rate cut to 16.50% more than markets expected. Markets were expecting 300 basis points interest rate cut from 19.75%. Tayyip Erdogan has put pressure on central bank (CBRT) to cut interest rates as he wants rates to be back in single digits. The bull run from 5.45 recent lows (August 8th) stopped at 5.85, a zone where the pair rejected three times since August 27th. The pair accelerated the upward move after the price pierced the descending trendline from May 23rd.

On the technical side, the pair has trapped the last month between the 100 and 200 day moving average. USDTRY will find support at 5.7192 today’s low and then at 5.6742 the 200 day moving average while more bids will emerge at 5.6150 the 50 day moving average. On the upside first resistance stands at 5.7352 today’s high, then at 5.7738 the 100-day moving average, while more offers will emerge at 5.85 the high from August 27th.

The technical outlook is neutral now for USDTRY, patient traders may wait for a break of the moving averages to initiate a position.