USDTRY Retreat From Two-Year Highs Amid USD Weakness


USDTRY retreat today from two-year highs amid US Dollar weakness across the board. The Turkish lira hit the lowest level since the lira crisis in 2018, amid increased fear that the coronavirus outbreak will have a disastrous impact on the already fragile Turkish economy. The Turkish government announced a 100 billion-lira relief package to help keep the economy on its feet. Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) started a 90-day repo auction up to 10 billion lira and an interest rate of 8.25% about 150 bps below its policy rate.

On the data front, the United States JOLTS Job Openings came in at 6.882M above the forecasts of 6.6M in February. The United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 96.4, below the market consensus of 104.6 in March, while the United States Redbook Index came in at 0.9% for the week of April 3, below the previous reading of 1.3%. 

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USDTRY Technical Evaluation

USDTRY is 0.27% lower at 6.7630, but off the daily lows as we are heading into the closing bell. The technical outlook for USDTRY is bullish despite today’s correction. A further correction can’t be ruled out as the pair is trading in overbought levels.  

On the downside, first support for USDTRY stands at 6.6998 the daily low. If USDTRY breaks below, the next support level stands at 6.6018 the low from April 2nd trading session. A move below might test 6.4853 the low from March 30.

On the other side, the first resistance for USDTRY stands at 6.7662 the daily top. Next hurdle for the pair is at 6.7944 the two-year highs from yesterday’s session. The next resistance awaits at 7.000 psychological mark.   

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