USD/RUB: Why is the Ruble Not Rising With Crude Oil Prices?

The USD/RUB has posted a steep rise on the day. TDS Securities blames the risks of sanctions from the EU and US under a new administration on the pressure the Ruble currently faces from the greenback. 

According to analysts at TDS Securities, the Russian currency is 16% weaker than from a year ago, with dollar-funded long positions on the Ruble shedding 12.5% in the past year. This makes the RUB the 2nd worst performing currency among the emerging market currencies. 

TDS Securities also notes the negative impact of last year’s oil drop on the oil-dependent Ruble. The recovery in crude oil prices ought to have supported the Ruble, they say, but sanctions risks have kept the Ruble depressed. 

The USD/RUB pair is up 0.7% on the day.

Technical Levels to Watch For

The USDRUB is currently testing resistance at the 75.974 price level. With the USD gaining strength this Wednesday, this resistance is at risk of giving way. If the bulls can gore their way past this level, 76.51 is there for the taking. Above this level, 78.195 and 79.93 are distant targets to the north. 

On the flip side, a rejection and pullback from 75.974 allow for the price to retreat towards 75.487, with 74.52 and 72.80 serving as additional downside targets. There is also the chance of a steep drop towards 70.61 if the USD loses momentum and rising crude oil prices support the Ruble. 

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USD/RUB Daily Chart

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