The USD/RUB is one of the exotic currency pairs which tends to escape the radar of many retail traders. However, the war in Ukraine that started on February 24 2022, with a full-scale Russian invasion, has brought this pair into the consciousness of market participants.
The USD/RUB pair is one pair you should be trading right now, and this article will present the USD/RUB forecasts in the short and medium term. After reading this piece, you will understand how to use the USD/RUB latest news in trading this pair and how to read and interpret USD/RUB charts for basic USD/RUB technical analysis. Finally, of course, you will get a sneak peek into the USD/RUB forecast for 2022 and forecasts for 2025 and 2030, if possible.
Is the USD/RUB pair a good investment? You can be sure it is, as the volatility of this pair in 2022 provides a potential for trading opportunities that could become profitable if well executed.
What is the USD/RUB?
The USD/RUB is the US Dollar and the Russian ruble pairing in the currency market. It can be found on the ATFX trading platform and is classified as an exotic pair. This is because it does not have the same liquidity level as some commonly traded USD pairs. Still, its sensitivity to the geopolitical situation and energy prices make it a pair you should consider trading in 2022 and beyond.
USD/RUB Latest News
The USD/RUB latest news that should concern every trader is the developing situation regarding the supply of energy products to Europe from Russia. Russian energy company Gazprom has already shuttered some of its supply to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. This action will reduce gas supply to several EU countries and could force energy prices worldwide to climb dramatically, with implications for nations dependent on crude oil imports and other energy products as winter gradually approaches.
Many countries are starting to see that the geopolitical conflict is affecting them in many ways. The war is already causing a spike in global food prices as the grain harvest in Ukraine has been shut down by the war. Russia and Ukraine combined are the 2nd largest suppliers of grains to the global food chain.
USD/RUB Forecast: 2022 – 2025
You can perform USD/RUB forecasts using technical analysis, combining this with fundamentals to get an idea of where the pair is headed and where and how you should enter and exit any positions you want to set up. Here is the USD/RUB technical analysis.
The monthly chart below is a USD/RUB historical chart 30 years outlook for the USD/RUB and qualifies to define the long-term perspective. The pair has been in a long-term uptrend from 1995 to date. During the Russian economic crisis of 1998, the USD/RUB strengthened by more than 200%. Then came a period of consolidation from 2000 to 2014, when the oil-linked Ruble weakened against the greenback due to falling crude oil prices.
USD/RUB Monthly Chart
Then came another period of consolidation before the outbreak of the war sent the USD/RUB to all-time highs as several Western countries hit Russia with economic sanctions. However, the Ruble recovered sharply after Russia implemented several measures, including forcing its energy-dependent clients to pay for gas supplies in Rubles. These clients had to exchange foreign currency in selected Russian banks for Rubles. This initiative created Ruble demand and increased USD supply, leading to a sharp correction in the USD/RUB. This correction could turn to a reversal if certain conditions are fulfilled. What are these conditions, and how will they determine the USD/RUB forecasts?
For the answers, we look to the weekly and daily charts, which indicate the medium-term and short-term outlooks for the USD/RUB.
USD/RUB Weekly Chart: August 1, 2022
The weekly USD/RUB chart shows the consolidation of the asset between 2015 and 2022, indicating that the pair broke the rectangle consolidation pattern initially. However, the price action has retraced back into the rectangle.
The rectangle consolidation range has the 67.9599 price mark as its ceiling and the 48.9091 pivot as the price floor. In the context of the correction, the 48.9091 support (April/May 2015 lows), which lies just below June 27, 2022, low, is the boundary of note, as a breakdown of this border could clear the path for the pair to enter a downtrend.
The price action picture gets more evident as we step down to the daily USD/RUB chart. The recovery of the USD/RUB from the 51.6225 support (June 29 low) peaked at 67.9599, where the price action formed a previous high on May 27 2022. However, the uptick of that day faced a strong rejection. Subsequent retest attempts faltered at the 64.4803 price mark, resulting in a selloff that found support at 52.8600 (July 4, 2022, low). The piercing candlestick pattern of 4/5 July spurred a recovery that took out resistance barriers along the way, but this move stalled at the 62.7625 resistance, thus forming a lower peak from the July 6 high at 67.9599. The lower peak could indicate that the recovery has stalled.
USD/RUB Daily Chart: August 1, 2022
Any decline from this peak must take out support levels at 60.9581, 58/4824/58.5621 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the June 29 swing low to the July 6 swing high) and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 55.5123 (July 18 low). This move has to eventually break below the 51.6225 pivot for the downtrend to resume. The first harvest point for the downtrend move will be the April/May 2015 lows at 48.9091, followed by the November 2014 peak at 47.5000 and the October 2014 high at 43.8250.
This outlook is negated if the bulls initially force a break of the 67.9599 high, targeting 70.4536 (May 9, 2022, high) and April 27, 2022, high low at 72.5000. An additional harvest point for the bulls lies at 75.7768 (March 31, 2022, low), with 80.1844 (January 26 high and April 14, 2022, low) coming in after that if the advance continues.
Failure to breach the critical price points that signal the continuation of the recovery or beginning of a downtrend will mean that the price action will continue to trade within the range defined by the weekly USD/RUB chart in the short and medium term. The USD/RUB forecast for 2030 cannot be determined presently. It will depend on how the geopolitical factors play out, as there remains a potential for the conflict to expand, with the NATO alliance and China potentially assuming more active roles.
Conclusion: Is USD/RUB a Good Investment?
This USD/RUB technical analysis shows the potential USD/RUB buy or sell playbook for both the short-term and medium-term. Is the USD/RUB a good investment? Yes, it is, as long as the current situation remains. An analysis of the USD/RUB charts has shown that multiple setups could develop in 2022 and beyond, promoting day trading and swing trading profit potentials. So head to ATFX, open an account, and try trading the USD/RUB today.