As we head into the Memorial Day weekend and the long holiday it carries with it, I end Friday’s analysis with a brief look at the USDCHF, which is a pair that is usually susceptible to safe-haven plays. The US Dollar was able to gain some strength against the Swiss Franc in what has been a choppy display by the pair the entire week. However, the dust is starting to settle as the consolidating symmetrical triangle has started to take shape. This puts traders on the pair on the alert for a potential breakout in the coming days. Here are some things to consider.
- the US-China tensions that have started to develop over the proposed new National Security Law for Hong Kong are still in infancy. They could worsen next week, or the situation could be doused. You need to keep an eye on the headlines this weekend.
- The long-term, medium-term and short-term charts all show an asset which is range-bound. Therefore, there is no directional bias for this setup. However, price seems to have entered the triangle for below, which may sway the bias for the breakout on the side of the US Dollar.
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A break of the triangle to the upside targets the 0.97703 resistance level, with 0.98116 and 0.98652 (16 December 2019 and 23 March 2020 peaks) forming further upside targets. Only a break of 0.98652 allows the pair to make a run towards parity. Price would also need to overcome the 200-SMA at the 0.97793 price levels to continue this run.
On the flip side, a downside break allows 0.96535 to come into the picture as the initial downside target. Below this level, 0.96274 and 0.95496 may provide further support. Strong safe-haven sentiment could drive prices even further towards 0.94963 and 0.94324.