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Preview of Australian Employment Change: What Happens to the AUDUSD?


We have the Australian employment data due for release at 12.30 am UTC. The figures for reference are shown below:

  • Australian Employment Change: – 38K (expected); 111.0K (previous)
  • Unemployment rate (7.0%) expected; 6.8% (previous)

Westpac notes that last month’s figures, which beat market expectations, were as a result of of a 50.2 rise in non-incorporated self-employed business people. Labour participation rose to 64.8% and was generally higher in many states except Victoria. This metric is expected to remain unchanged. 

Trade Expectations

For the news release to be considered a tradable event, there must be no conflict between the numbers. This means that the numbers must move in opposite directions. Suppose the numbers move in the same direction (lower employment change plus lower unemployment rate, or higher employment change plus higher unemployment rates). If this is the case, the numbers are conflicting and cannot be traded. The market response will be choppy, or there might be no appreciable movement.

Against this backdrop, if the employment change is more negative along with a higher-than-expected or static unemployment rate, this is considered negative for the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD pair may come under bearish pressure. This may prompt a breakdown of the triangle, with an initial target of 0.70595. Further support lies at 0.70034 and 0.69160.

Conversely, suppose the employment change is more positive along with a lower-than-expected or static unemployment rate. In that case, this is considered positive for the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD may find buying momentum. This could prompt a bullish break from the triangle, targeting the 0.72977 resistance. 0.73831 will then become a potential target to the upside if 0.72977 is surpassed. 

AUDUSD Daily Chart