- USD/CAD climbed toward weekly highs as falling oil prices weakened the Canadian dollar despite strong domestic trade data.
- Canada's trade surplus reached a four-year high, but the positive economic data was overshadowed by the sharp decline in crude oil prices.
- Markets are reassessing Federal Reserve expectations, limiting gains in the US dollar after weaker-than-expected US economic data.
USD/CAD rises as oil prices pressure the Canadian dollar
The USD/CAD exchange rate extended its gains on Wednesday, climbing toward the 1.4080 level as another sharp decline in oil prices continued to pressure the Canadian dollar.
The move came despite encouraging economic data from Canada, where the country’s merchandise trade surplus expanded to its highest level in four years during June. Under normal market conditions, stronger trade figures would support the loonie. However, investors remained focused on the collapse in crude oil prices, which has become the dominant driver of the Canadian currency this week.
Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters, meaning movements in oil prices often have a direct impact on the value of the Canadian dollar. With Brent crude slipping below $80 per barrel as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran improved, traders reduced exposure to the loonie in anticipation of weaker export revenues.
Lower oil prices offset stronger Canadian economic data
The Canadian dollar struggled to capitalize on stronger-than-expected domestic economic data as falling crude oil prices remained the dominant driver of market sentiment. Canada reported a merchandise trade surplus that climbed to a four-year high in June, reflecting resilient exports and healthy external demand. Under normal circumstances, such data would provide support for the loonie by reinforcing confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
However, investors largely overlooked the upbeat trade figures as oil prices extended their recent decline. Brent crude slipped below $80 per barrel, marking its lowest level in several weeks, after growing optimism that diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran could ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the risk of supply disruptions. Expectations that global oil supplies could stabilize prompted traders to unwind part of this year’s geopolitical risk premium.
Because crude oil is Canada’s largest export, movements in energy prices have a significant impact on the country’s trade balance, corporate earnings and economic growth prospects. The latest decline in oil prices therefore outweighed the positive impact of Canada’s stronger trade data, leaving the loonie under pressure as investors continued to favor the US dollar.
Softer US data caps US dollar gains
While USD/CAD continued to move higher, gains in the US dollar remained limited as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following a fresh batch of weaker-than-expected US economic data. The greenback initially found support from broad risk sentiment but struggled to build sustained momentum as markets questioned whether the Fed would have enough justification to continue tightening monetary policy.
Recent economic releases painted a mixed picture of the US economy. JOLTS job openings fell by more than economists had anticipated, suggesting labor demand is beginning to cool after months of resilience. Meanwhile, factory orders unexpectedly declined, pointing to softer business investment and moderating manufacturing activity. Together, the data reinforced expectations that economic momentum is slowing, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term.
As a result, traders scaled back expectations for another interest rate hike, with market-implied odds of a September increase easing from the previous session. Lower rate expectations tend to weigh on the US dollar by narrowing its interest-rate advantage over other major currencies.
Despite this, USD/CAD remained supported because weakness in the Canadian dollar proved more significant than softness in the greenback. Falling crude oil prices continued to undermine the loonie, allowing the pair to edge higher even as US dollar gains were capped by expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
USD/CAD outlook
The USD/CAD outlook remains cautiously bullish while the pair trades above the psychological 1.4000 support level. Buyers are now testing resistance around 1.4090, a key technical barrier that has capped recent advances. A decisive breakout above this level could expose 1.4125, with the yearly high near 1.4250 becoming the next major upside target.
However, if oil prices recover or expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade, the Canadian dollar could regain some ground, potentially pulling USD/CAD back toward 1.4000.
USD/CAD is rising mainly because falling oil prices are weakening the Canadian dollar, while the US dollar remains relatively stable despite softer US economic data.
The immediate resistance level is around 1.4090. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a test of 1.4125, followed by the 2026 highs near 1.4250.
Canada is a major oil exporter. Lower crude prices reduce export revenues and typically weaken the Canadian dollar, while higher oil prices generally support the currency.