EUR/USD Signals: US Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes in Focus

The EUR/USD price is pushing lower ahead of the latest FOMC minutes and the US retail sales numbers. The EURUSD is trading at 1.2092, which is lower than yesterday’s high of 1.2167.

EUR/USD news: The EUR to USD pair is falling mostly because of the overall strong US dollar as treasury yields. The treasuries rose as traders started to bet that the US inflation will resume. 

Later today, the pair will react to the latest retail sales numbers from the United States. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the sales rose by 1.1% in January after falling by 0.7% in December. They expect the data to show that core retail sales rose by 1.0%. If the numbers disappoint as they did last time, it will put more pressure on Congress to fast-track the next stimulus package. 


The EUR/USD will also react to the latest minutes by the Federal Reserve. In the meeting, the bank left interest rates unchanged and pledged to do more to support the economy.

EUR/USD Technical outlook 

Turning to the hourly chart, we see that the EURUSD price declined to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday. It is also forming a bearish consolidation pattern and has moved below the 25-period and 15-period exponential moving averages (EMAs). 

In my view, while the long-term trend is bullish, we cannot rule out another decline to the 50% retracement level at 1.2060. The invalidation point for this trade will be if the price rises to the 23.6% retracement at 1.2115.

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EURUSD technical chart


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