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EUR to USD forecast: EURUSD Upside Bias Remains – Eyes on Stimulus


The EUR to USD (EURUSD) price is little changed as investors wait for EU budget negotiations and as investors focus on US stimulus talks. The pair is trading at 1.1820, which is slightly below the intraday high of 1.1826.

On Saturday, stimulus talks continued in the United States as the administration added its offer to $1.8 trillion. That move narrowed the Democratic party proposal by more than $400 billion even as some Republicans in congress remained critical about the bill.

In all, the new stalemate makes it almost impossible for the two sides to reach a deal that will please the House of Representative, Senate, and the White House.

The stalemate also means that the US economy could be significantly affected in the near term because of lack of a deal. Indeed, in the FOMC minutes and in speeches made last week, Fed officials asked the politicians to pass a new stimulus deal to help cushion the economy from shocks.

Worse, the number of Covid-19 cases has continued to increase, which exposes the economy to more risks. The country confirmed more than 50,000 new cases yesterday even as health officials warned about the rising death toll.

Meanwhile, the EUR to USD price is also reacting to the stalemate in Europe about the budget. Last week, EU president tried to solve the impasse by adding some budgetary measures. Still, while the logjam remains, analysts at Danske Bank expect the two sides to reach a deal.

EURUSD technical outlook

The three-hour chart shows that the EUR to USD price has been in an upward trend. It is trading at 1.1820, which is a few pips below last week’s high of 1.1831. The price is above the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. It is also above the important resistance/support at 1.1800.

Therefore, for today, I expect that the price will remain within the current range with bias towards the upside. In this case, barring any major information, I expect that the price will attempt to retest last week’s high of 1.1831. In this case, the ideal position for a stop is at the support at 1.1800.

EUR to USD technical chart