Crude Oil Price Outlook: $64 Comes Under Serious Pressure from COVID-19 Delta, FOMC

Crude oil price came under fresh pressure in the New York session, despite crude oil inventories showing a steeper-than-expected decline of -3.2million barrels for the week ended 13 August. This figure exceeded the -1.5million barrels that the market expected as the shortfall and was more than the 400,000 barrels shortfall seen the week before. 

Fears about the surging cases of the delta variant of the coronavirus continue to override any positive crude oil fundamentals. Several countries are reintroducing travel restrictions, limiting travel and reducing demand for crude oil. A resurgent US Dollar on the expectation of the FOMC minutes favouring an early tapering regimen by the Fed is also cooling off crude oil prices.

The Brent crude benchmark has lost all previous gains of the day and now trades 0.93% lower. 

Crude Oil Price Prediction

Price looks set to make the 4th attempt to break down 67.74. If this support finally gives way, the scenario opens the door towards 66.81 and 65.95. Additional targets to the south are found at 64.26 and 62.21. It is also impossible to rule out a potential drop towards the 60.01 psychological support.

On the flip side, bulls would be hoping for a bounce on the 67.74 support, allowing for a reprieve move to the 70.01 price mark. Here, the crude oil price would need some real momentum to surmount the double resistance formed by the ascending trendline and the 70.01 price mark acting as a psychological barrier. If price can surmount these barriers, 71.44 and 73.34 could become available as new targets. Otherwise, a rally to the trendline barrier could just be an opportunity to see new offers. 

Crude Oil Price (Brent): Daily Chart