- Gold price is trading around $4,374 per ounce on Thursday after briefly pushing back toward the closely watched $4,400 level.
- US initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, exceeding forecasts of 202,000 and adding to signs of cooling in the US labour market.
- XAU/USD remains within a broader bullish structure, although weakening short-term momentum leaves $4,360 as an important support level.
Gold prices remained in focus on Thursday as XAU/USD attempted to reclaim the $4,400 per ounce level following another sign of weakness in the US labour market.
Spot gold initially moved toward $4,400 after US initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, reinforcing concerns that labour-market conditions are beginning to soften. The move later faded, however, with gold trading around $4,374 at the time of writing.
The pullback leaves bullion below its recent highs but still substantially above levels seen at the beginning of August. Gold has rallied sharply in recent sessions as investors balance softer US economic data against inflation risks, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold Price Reacts as US Jobless Claims Rise to 209,000
The latest US labour-market figures provided fresh support for gold on Thursday.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 in the week ending August 8, above market expectations of approximately 202,000. The previous week’s figure was also revised slightly higher to 200,000. The four-week moving average rose to approximately 199,000, compared with forecasts around 197,000.
Continuing claims provided a somewhat stronger signal, falling to 1.777 million from a downwardly revised 1.799 million and coming below expectations of 1.800 million. The mixed report nevertheless adds to growing evidence that the US labour market is no longer running as strongly as it was earlier in the year.
That matters considerably for the gold price outlook because weakening employment conditions could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Gold does not pay interest, meaning lower expected rates and falling bond yields generally improve the relative appeal of holding bullion.
US Inflation and Fed Rate Expectations Remain Key for Gold
Thursday’s employment numbers come immediately after markets digested the latest US CPI report. Headline US inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5%, while core inflation slowed to 2.5%. The figures helped reduce expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September meeting. For gold, the combination of cooling inflation and softer employment data creates a potentially supportive backdrop.
However, the Fed’s path remains complicated by elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks. Renewed increases in oil prices could keep inflation above the central bank’s target and preserve the possibility of further monetary tightening later in 2026.
This tension helps explain why gold has struggled to extend its advance decisively beyond $4,400 despite receiving support from weaker economic data.
Gold Remains Supported by Middle East Uncertainty
Geopolitical developments are providing another important layer of support for the gold market. Uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and shipping through strategically important waterways continues to create demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
Any renewed escalation that threatens global energy supplies could increase demand for gold. At the same time, however, sharply higher oil prices could revive US inflation concerns and support a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Gold therefore faces an unusual situation in which geopolitical tension can simultaneously increase safe-haven demand while strengthening one of the arguments for keeping US interest rates elevated. The direction of the US dollar and Treasury yields will remain important in determining which of these forces dominates.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,360 Support
The one-hour gold chart shows that the broader advance remains intact, but short-term momentum has weakened considerably. XAU/USD has retreated from the upper Bollinger Band after repeatedly struggling around the $4,420-$4,430 region. Gold is now trading around $4,374, close to the lower Bollinger Band near $4,363.
The MACD has also turned bearish. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, while the histogram has moved further into negative territory. This suggests sellers currently have control of short-term momentum despite the broader bullish trend.
Immediate support sits around $4,360-$4,365. Holding this region could allow buyers to make another attempt at $4,400. A break below $4,360, however, would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward the $4,320 area. Below there, $4,280 becomes the next significant level visible on the recent price structure.
On the upside, bulls first need to reclaim $4,395-$4,400. A sustained move above this region would put the recent $4,425-$4,430 resistance zone back into focus.
Gold Price Outlook: Can Gold Break Above $4,400?
The near-term gold price outlook remains constructive but increasingly dependent on incoming US economic data. Gold’s sharp advance from around $4,050 at the beginning of August shows that buyers remain active. Softer inflation, weaker employment data and reduced expectations for another immediate Fed rate increase have all contributed to the rally.
However, the inability to maintain Thursday’s move toward $4,400 suggests traders are becoming more selective at elevated prices.
The next move could therefore depend on whether incoming US data reinforce the slowdown narrative. Further weakness could pressure the dollar and Treasury yields, potentially giving gold another opportunity to break through $4,400 and challenge $4,430.
For now, $4,360 and $4,400 define the immediate battle for XAU/USD. A break on either side could determine whether gold resumes its August rally or enters a deeper short-term consolidation.
Gold is trading around $4,374 per ounce at the time of writing on Thursday, August 13, after approaching $4,400 earlier in the session.
US initial jobless claims increased to 209,000, above expectations of 202,000. Signs of a softer labour market can reduce expectations for higher Federal Reserve interest rates, which tends to support non-yielding assets such as gold.
The broader gold price trend remains bullish following the strong August rally, but short-term momentum has weakened. The MACD has turned bearish on the one-hour chart, making the $4,360 support area important for determining the next move.