Speculators slightly reduced their USD net short positions for a second week in a row, but they retained their speculative bias for the safe-haven currencies of CHF and JPY, even though net longs on these were pared to 6-week lows.
This speculative picture was in play today on the USDCHF, which fell for the 4th day in a row Monday to 0.90780. This translates to a loss of -0.11% on the day. However, as USD net shorts dropped to $32.67 billion in the week ended September 8, down from $32.83 billion the previous week, the USDCHF has found support on the saucer pattern. Today’s intraday low of 0.90580 touched off the saucer’s rounded bottom, close to the 0.90479 resistance.
Outlook for USDCHF
Price now looks primed for a bounce from the current support, which would favour an upside move towards the 0.91533 resistance. This resistance is the barrier that stands in the way of bulls as they aim for the lid at 0.92000 (highs of August 12 and September 8). A break above the lid targets 0.92264, with 0.93126 lying further ahead.
On the flip side, 0.89953 could be the target if the price breaks down the saucer and the 0.90479 support. 0.89144 and 0.88600 are also additional targets that could follow if the Swiss Franc benefits from safe-haven plays this week.
Watch for Wednesday’s FOMC minutes as a key driver of price action on this pair.
USDCHF Daily Chart